Vietnamese businesses are entering the second half facing a more complex operating environment, as higher energy costs, tighter liquidity, and persistent supply chain disruptions converge at the same time.

Companies have been urged act now before the next disruption forces plans to change, Photo Le Toan

Pratiksha Bhanti, senior manager of Deals – Transformation at PwC Vietnam, said the firms performing best in volatile environments are often those that act fastest.

“What separates winners from laggards is not understanding what needs to be done; it is execution speed. The playbook is straightforward: tighten collections, optimise inventory, hedge exposures and improve cash visibility. But timing is critical,” said Bhanti. “Companies need to act while the pressure is real and the business case is undeniable. Once markets stabilise and the urgency fades, the organisational will to change often disappears with it. We are already seeing material differences between firms that moved decisively in recent months and those that are still planning.”

According to PwC Vietnam, the greatest risk is not any single shock but the cumulative effect of multiple pressures arriving simultaneously, squeezing margins, cash flow and access to funding.

“The mechanics are straightforward but compounding. Input and logistics costs have risen sharply, and even as oil prices ease from their peak, shipping routes remain longer and fuel surcharges persist. At the same time, credit conditions are tightening: borrowing is becoming more expensive, while customers facing similar pressures are ordering less and paying later,” said Mohammad Mudasser, director with PwC’s Deals Advisory, in comments to VIR on June 17.

The result, he said, is a stretched cash-conversion cycle, with more cash tied up in receivables and inventory just as external funding becomes harder to obtain. For manufacturers, retailers, and logistics firms, this combination is placing sustained pressure on liquidity.

The warning comes against a backdrop of continuing uncertainty in global markets. When Vietnamese companies prepared their 2026 business plans at the start of the year, oil was trading at around $66 per barrel. Brent crude later surged to as high as $117 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in mid-June, oil still hovering around $77 per barrel, well above levels seen at the beginning of the year, and Vietnam relying on imports for roughly 85 per cent of its crude oil needs, imported cost pressures are expected to persist into the second half of the year.

The strain is becoming visible. According to the National Statistics Office under Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance, core inflation rose 5.6 per cent on-year in May, while average inflation so far this year increased 4.04 per cent from a year earlier.

It also pointed to signs of a growing business retreat. Over the first four months, the number of businesses suspending operations reached 72,200, up 5.1 per cent on-year. More notably, the number of dissolved enterprises surged 98.7 per cent to nearly 15,200.

For Mudasser of PwC, the more important question is not how severe the external shock becomes, but how much liquidity companies can unlock internally.

“In our work with manufacturers, retailers and traders across Vietnam, we keep finding the same thing that a large share of a company’s cash is hiding in plain sight, locked inside ageing inventory, slow collections and exposures that no-one is actively hedging,” said Mudasser.

For a company with $100 million in annual revenue, reducing the cash-conversion cycle by just five days can immediately free up roughly $1.4 million in working capital, he explained. “This is the crux. The shock itself is largely external and beyond anyone’s control. But the response of how quickly cash is freed during this transition window, how exposures are hedged before normalisation, and how clearly leaders can see their position, is entirely a matter of management,” he explained. “With supply chain recovery expected to take months, the question for Vietnamese businesses is not whether they should wait for full normalisation, but whether they act now or wait until the next disruption forces their hand, at a far higher cost.”

Nguyen Ngoc Nam, director of Financial Services Consulting at KPMG Vietnam, at the event

Speaking at the summit on June 16, KPMG Vietnam director Nguyen Ngoc Nam said that while nearly 40 per cent of organisations are scaling up or accelerating AI adoption, only 8 per cent report achieving a clear return on investment.

“This gap suggests that AI does not automatically create value. Successful AI adoption requires a strong operational foundation, high-quality data, effective performance measurement, and an appropriate governance framework,” Nam said.

According to Nam, this is particularly relevant for Ho Chi Minh City, where enterprises are embracing new technologies at a rapid pace, while expectations regarding investment efficiency, data security, and system resilience are also rising.

“As AI adoption accelerates, the market does not simply need more infrastructure. It needs infrastructure capable of running AI safely, with strong governance and the ability to measure and demonstrate tangible business value,” he added.

If data centres represent the physical backbone of the digital economy, cloud computing is the infrastructure layer that enables enterprises to scale flexibly in the AI era.

Today, cloud computing is no longer merely an IT infrastructure solution. It has evolved into a strategic platform that allows businesses to deploy AI applications more efficiently while meeting increasingly stringent requirements for data management, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance.

As enterprises accelerate their digital transformation journeys, cloud infrastructure is becoming an essential enabler of innovation, providing the agility, scalability, and resilience needed to support AI-driven growth.

According to the ‘Cloud computing market size and share analysis – Growth trends and forecast (2026-2031)’ released by Mordor Intelligence in January, Global spending on cloud computing is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.65 per cent during the 2026–2031 period. By 2031, the market is expected to be more than 2.5 times larger than its current size.

In Vietnam, according to Ken Research 2025, the cloud computing market is projected to reach $1.5 billion by 2033, expanding at an annual CAGR of 30 per cent.

“Ho Chi Minh City alone accounted for around 40 per cent of Vietnam’s cloud computing market in 2025, the largest share nationwide,” Nam said. “The main growth drivers are industries with stringent requirements for data processing and system continuity, such as banking, financial services and insurance, healthcare, and other data-intensive sectors,” Nam added.

Against this backdrop, Ho Chi Minh City’s digital infrastructure strategy should go beyond merely expanding data centre capacity or increasing cloud computing capabilities.

“Businesses need an AI-ready infrastructure platform that is flexible to deploy, capable of ensuring data security, and resilient against increasingly sophisticated cybersecurity threats,” Nam said.

Tran Van Bang, deputy CEO of Viettel IDC

Tran Van Bang, deputy CEO of Viettel IDC, explained that in the AI era, competitive advantage no longer comes solely from algorithms or AI models, but increasingly from the strength of the underlying infrastructure.

“Data centres, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and operational capabilities are the key factors determining whether AI can be deployed effectively at scale,” Bang said.

“Without an infrastructure foundation that is robust, secure, and flexible, it is extremely difficult for businesses to translate AI investments into tangible business outcomes. This is also the strategic direction that Viettel IDC is pursuing,” Bang added.

According to Bang, competition in the AI era is no longer confined to the application layer or the sophistication of AI models. Instead, it is increasingly being shaped by the strength and resilience of the digital infrastructure that supports them.

“As AI adoption accelerates, organisations that invest early in AI-ready infrastructure will be better positioned to innovate, scale their operations, and capture new growth opportunities in the digital economy,” he added.

According to a report released by Gartner in January, global AI spending is projected to reach $2.52 trillion in 2026, up 44 per cent from the previous year, and is expected to rise further to $3.3 trillion by 2027. AI infrastructure accounted for as much as 55 per cent of total AI spending in 2025, making it the largest investment segment across the AI ecosystem.

Worldwide, there are currently around 11,000 data centres with a combined power demand exceeding 120 GW. AI data centres, while representing less than 1 per cent of the total number of facilities and having emerged only in recent years, already account for approximately 25 per cent of the electricity consumed across the global data centre industry.

According to the International Energy Agency, electricity consumption by data centres worldwide could triple over the next decade, largely driven by AI-related workloads.

This signals a major shift for industry: the primary challenge is no longer merely scaling up computing power, but ensuring adequate energy supply, maximizing efficiency, and achieving sustainable operations.

According to Bang, the next phase of data centre development will be shaped by three major imperatives: scaling up infrastructure capacity, enhancing operational efficiency, and complying with stringent safety and sustainability standards. These elements provide the foundation for businesses to deploy AI, cloud, big data and other mission-critical workloads with greater stability and security.

In this context, Ho Chi Minh City’s digital infrastructure strategy is no longer limited to expanding data centre capacity or boosting cloud capabilities. Instead, enterprises increasingly need AI-ready infrastructure that offers deployment flexibility, robust data protection and resilience against the growing complexity of cyber threats.

Vietnam posts second-highest AI adoption in Southeast Asia Vietnam has the second-highest AI adoption rate in Southeast Asia at 26.5 per cent, according to a recent Microsoft report.

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Held since 2003 by the Vietnam Software and IT Services Association (VINASA), the Sao Khue Awards are one of the most prestigious honours in Vietnam’s IT industry. This year’s edition took place on May 28 in Hanoi and introduced a new evaluation framework to assess the maturity, innovation, and practical impact of digital products and services.

For Saigon Technology, this year’s recognition arrives at a particularly meaningful moment. Since 2012, the company has grown from a software development provider serving international clients into a global technology partner, with more than 400 engineers and over 850 successful projects delivered across North America, Australia, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The 2026 recognition is especially significant not just for the award itself, but also for the changing landscape of software development in the age of AI.

As AI rapidly reshapes the software industry, development cycles are becoming shorter, repetitive coding tasks are automated, and businesses are demanding faster delivery without compromising quality.

This transformation has created a new challenge for software companies: how to continue delivering value when AI can perform many technical tasks that once required extensive human effort.

Rather than viewing AI as a disruption, Saigon Technology has embraced it as an opportunity to evolve. The company has expanded beyond the traditional outsourcing model, positioning itself as an AI-native engineering partner that combines experienced software talent, AI-enhanced development processes, and large-scale product delivery expertise.

Speaking at the award ceremony, Nguyen Duc Minh, business development manager at Saigon Technology, said that AI is not replacing software engineers but transforming the way they work.

“We do not see AI as a threat. Instead, it enables engineers to work more effectively and focus on solving complex business challenges. Technology will continue to evolve, but our mission remains the same: helping clients build software faster, leaner, and smarter in the AI era,” he said.

The market has already recognised this strategic direction. In the Top 10 ICT Vietnam 2025 rankings, Saigon Technology was named among the Top 2 Established Performers Providing AI Application Development Platforms, Top 2 Enterprises Providing Global Digital Services, and Top 6 Software Development & Application Companies.

The AI-native Custom Software Development category at Sao Khue 2026 recognises the core capability that Saigon Technology has built over the years: helping businesses design, build, and scale software solutions tailored to their unique needs.

This is not the company’s first appearance at the Sao Khue Awards. Saigon Technology previously received Sao Khue Awards in both 2019 and 2020, highlighting the company’s strong engineering foundation. This year’s recognition reflects something broader: its ability to adapt, innovate, and continue creating value in an industry being transformed by AI.

Alongside technology achievements, Saigon Technology has also earned recognition for its workplace culture and commitment to talent development. The company received Great Place to Work Certification in 2022, 2023, and 2025, was named among the Best Workplaces in Vietnam and Best Workplaces in Asia in 2023, and was included in Fortune’s 100 Best Companies to Work For in Southeast Asia in 2025.

“Each milestone reflects the collective effort of our people, our culture, and our commitment to continuous improvement. Sao Khue 2026 is a reminder of how far we have come, but more importantly, it inspires us to keep moving forward,” Minh shared.

As Vietnam continues to strengthen position as a growing technology hub in the Asia-Pacific region, companies like Saigon Technology demonstrate how Vietnamese software firms can compete and thrive on the global stage.

The US ready to cement partnership with Vietnam and ASEAN The United States is ready to deepen its partnership with Vietnam and ASEAN across every dimension of the relationship, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau has said.

VNG unveils new positioning for AI era At its 2026 AGM on June 6, VNG Group unveiled its new positioning as “Vietnam’s digital ecosystem builder for the AI era.”

Cost increases trigger supply chain overhauls for businesses Deloitte’s 2025 Asia Pacific Tax and Tariff Complexity Survey finds that 41 per cent of businesses in Asia-Pacific, including Vietnam, would consider significant supply chain realignment even with cost increases below 20 per cent.

According to data from Metric, a Vietnam-based e-commerce data and market intelligence company, the gross merchandise value (GMV) generated by Vietnam’s four largest e-commerce platforms of Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada and Tiki during this year’s June 6 mega sales event could exceed $260 million

Vietnam’s e-commerce platforms are increasingly competing on customer experience rather than price

The forecast is based on the performance of the May 5 sales campaign, which recorded GMV of approximately $260 million.

Beyond growth in scale, the market is also witnessing profound changes in consumer behaviour, competitive dynamics and platform business models.

The figures highlight the continued strength of online spending in Vietnam. Earlier, a market report from Metric showed that Vietnamese consumers spent approximately $17.2 billion on Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada and Tiki in 2025, an average of about $47.7 million per day.

Meanwhile, a report by YouNet ECI, a Vietnamese market research and analytics company specialising in e-commerce intelligence, found that total GMV across the four major platforms exceeded $18.32 billion in 2025, growth of 26 per cent compared with the previous year.

The data suggest that e-commerce has entered a stage of large-scale expansion rather than serving merely as a supplementary sales channel, as was the case in the past.

Another notable trend is the rapid increase in average order value. According to Metric, GMV during the May 5 sales event rose 18 per cent on-year, while the number of products sold declined 6 per cent and the number of stores generating orders fell by around 10 per cent.

At the same time, the average value per product increased from $4.32 to $5.44, approximately 25 per cent growth.

This indicates that consumers are no longer focused on maximising the number of purchases, as seen during the post-COVID boom period, but are increasingly prioritising higher-quality products and higher-value segments.

Product categories posting strong growth included groceries, beauty products, mother-and-baby products, healthcare, mobile phones and home-related goods.

Notably, the beauty segment continued to demonstrate the effectiveness of livestream commerce, generating more than $47.76 million in sales on May 5 alone.

Industry experts say that Vietnam’s e-commerce sector is entering a more mature stage, where competition extends well beyond promotional discounts.

Rather than competing solely on price, e-commerce platforms in Vietnam are increasingly investing in logistics infrastructure, fulfilment centres, AI, user data capabilities, livestream commerce and creator networks.

With an annual market size measured in tens of billions of dollars and one of the fastest growth rates in the region, Vietnam’s e-commerce sector is expected to retain substantial growth potential.

However, the next phase of competition will not simply be a battle among platforms. It will increasingly be a contest among businesses capable of harnessing data, technology and the power of the creator economy to win over digital consumers.

To remain competitive, companies need to continuously upgrade their algorithms, advertising ecosystems and logistics capabilities, while making more strategic investments in branding, customer data and content development.

E-commerce race heats up with new player entering arena A new commercial platform, nongsan.buudien.vn, has made its official debut.

Southeast Asian e-commerce market hit $157 billion in 2025 Southeast Asia’s e-commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) grew 22.8 per cent on-year in 2025 to reach $157.6 billion, as leading platforms returned to growth while continuing to improve infrastructure, fulfilment, and customer experience, according to Momentum Works.

Over 200,000 OCOP items listed on e-commerce platforms More than 200,000 One Commune, One Product items have been labelled through the ‘Vietnam Goods Rise Up’ initiative launched on TikTok Shop in 2025.

In a report released on June 3, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) noted that GDP grew by 8 per cent in 2025 and remained strong in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP increasing by 7.8 per cent on-year. Private consumption remained resilient, underpinned by wage and employment increases, while public investment was supported by progress in infrastructure projects.

The labour market is tight with a historically low unemployment rate of 2.2 per cent, and the labour force participation rate increased to 68.7 per cent towards the end of 2025, followed by a slight decline to 68.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. Headline and core inflation both rose in April, to 5.5 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively. Fuel and transport prices increased by 11.1 per cent on-year.

Exports remained robust throughout 2025 and maintained their momentum in early 2026. Despite the imposition of US tariffs, goods exports remained strong against the backdrop of surging demand for semiconductor-related goods. Services exports have also remained strong, particularly in the tourism sector.

Foreign direct investment (FDI), an important driver of growth for Vietnam, has continued its steady increase. With more than 80 per cent of Vietnam’s oil imports coming from the Middle East, Vietnam is strongly exposed to the evolving conflict in the Middle East.

Fiscal policy will continue to support growth through increased public investment, pursuing an ambitious growth target of 10 per cent average growth over 2026 to 2030. The fiscal deficit of the general government is expected to widen to 4.8 per cent of GDP this year, mainly due to tax cuts in response to higher energy prices. The current energy-related tax cuts include setting import tariffs and the environmental protection tax on petroleum products to zero until the end of June.

Considering that public debt, at 31.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, is well below the 60 per cent ceiling, Vietnam has fiscal space to address emerging medium-term spending pressures and short-term spending needs. The monetary policy stance, defined through quantitative credit targets, has been accommodative since June 2023 and is expected to remain supportive during 2026 and 2027.

“GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in 2026 and 6.2 per cent in 2027 amid higher energy prices and measures to limit energy use. Private consumption will remain buoyant due to strong wages and employment, while the higher energy-related costs and the planned VAT rate increase at the beginning of 2027 will likely dampen private consumption temporarily and keep inflation elevated,” the OECD said.

Investment growth will be supported by public-sector-led projects under the new five-year plan. However, if project implementation falls short of schedule, the growth effect may turn out lower or materialise later.

Exports are expected to lose momentum in 2026 as possible supply disruptions, increased transport costs and the phase-out of front-loaded foreign demand, including on semiconductor-related products, take their toll. Service exports, particularly those related to tourism, are expected to remain robust.

As a small trade-dependent economy and a net importer of oil and gas from the Middle East, Vietnam is particularly vulnerable to higher energy prices and energy shortages, including of refined fuels. Additional downside risks stem from trade policy uncertainty and a possible increase in non-performing loans.

According to the OECD, the central bank should closely monitor inflation risks from rising energy prices and related second-round effects and stand ready to tighten monetary policy if needed. Moving towards a price-based monetary policy would improve macroeconomic resilience and facilitate stronger competition in financial markets, potentially improving the allocation of capital and raising productivity.

Regulatory reforms, such as opening up services markets to competition and FDI, hold significant potential to boost productivity, in addition to reducing the weight of state-owned enterprises and levelling the playing field with private firms. Informality affects around two-thirds of employees, limiting resilience and holding back productivity growth. Stronger incentives for formal job creation could result from efforts to reduce the labour tax wedge for low-income earners while enhancing the role of non-contributory social protection benefits.

Investing in climate-change adaptation measures will be key to enhance climate resilience against floods, typhoons and rising sea levels. Tax cuts on fuels should remain time-bound, while stronger efforts to accelerate the rollout of renewable energy sources would help support both energy security and emission reductions.

OECD meeting closes with key input from Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance The 2025 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Ministerial Council Meeting concluded after two days of deliberations in Paris on June 4, with the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance delegation making significant contributions to the event’s overall success.

Vietnam Economic Report 2025: OECD insights on sustainable growth strategy The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in coordination with the Ministry of Finance and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), hosted a seminar to launch the Vietnam Economic Report 2025 on June 20 in Hanoi.

OECD projects moderation in Vietnam’s GDP growth over next two years Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow in the coming years, with real GDP projected at 6.2 per cent in 2026 and 5.8 per cent in 2027, the OECD has said.